生命保険会社の顧客の超過死亡数の数字が示す現状。LoL

May 7, 2024
Excess Mortality recedes, but remains above normal
While the materialization of what the life insurance business calls “excess mortality” during the COVID-19 pandemic was not unexpected, its persistence has raised questions, including whether the elevated levels of death – and disability – are becoming the new normal?
Excess mortality was the bane of the industry’s financial results over the last few years, leading to depressed earnings and losses. The term is a polite way to say more people were dying than was expected or predicted, thus the policy claims were higher and the payouts greater than the companies had reserved for.
While the pandemic, for the most part, has subsided, mortality rates – the number of deaths compared to historically baseline levels – is still higher than normal, and may be poised to climb even higher. And while theories abound as to the cause, no one – from industry analysts to healthcare specialists, to policymakers, to underwriters – has a handle on this chilling phenomenon.

And the sad beat goes on. Excess death claimed 158,000 more Americans in the first nine months of 2023 than in the same period in 2019. That’s more than the combined losses from every US war since Vietnam.

https://insurancenewsnet.com/innarticle/excess-mortality-recedes-but-remains-above-normal

Post-COVID 19 ‘excess mortality’ rates could remain high for another decade
COVID-19 might seem like a distant memory but for life insurance executives unexpectedly high mortality rates remain a stubborn reminder.
And it’s starting to look like it might not correct itself anytime soon.
During recent third-quarter earnings calls, life insurance executives conceded that mortality assumptions might need to be reconsidered in light of new data.
In particular, a recent Swiss Re Research Institute report concluded that excess mortality is likely to persist for as long as another decade. Excess mortality is a data point that insurers watch very closely.
“Under an optimistic scenario, we find that U.S. and U.K. pandemic-linked excess mortality would disappear by 2028, reverting to pre-pandemic mortality expectations,” Swiss Re concluded. Under a pessimistic scenario, we expect excess mortality to remain elevated until 2033, above pre-pandemic expectations.”
Yanela Frias is executive vice president and chief financial officer for Prudential. During a recent call with Wall Street analysts, she confirmed that the insurer is now taking the long view of mortality.
Accurate and conservative mortality assumptions are a pillar of the life insurance paradigm because they guide financial planning.
“The observations and the expectations from the report are consistent with our internal view and with the approach that we have taken our mortality assumptions,” Frias said. “We have experienced mortality that is broadly in line with expectations since updating our mortality-based table assumptions in 2022.”
The individual life insured population is less impacted by COVID-19 than the general population, Frias explained. But Prudential’s PRT mortality experience “has trended heavier in 2023 that is consistent with continued excess mortality,” she added.

In two other age groups, mortality was 79% above expected.

https://insurancenewsnet.com/innarticle/post-covid-19-excess-mortality-rates-could-remain-high-for-another-decade

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